Elway Poll Results from Sound Politics The Rossi campaign has just released the results of an Elway poll which shows that the state's voters believe:

1) If Rossi prevails in the manual recount, he should be accepted as the legitimate Governor.

2) If Gregoire increases her margin in King County as a result of changing the rules in the middle of the game, that her "win" will not be accepted as legitimate and that a run-off election should be held.

This in spite of the fact that the survey sample included significantly more Democrats than Republicans and an equal number who said they voted for each candidate.

The complete survey report is in the extended entry.

TOPLINE DATA

This summary presents response frequency distributions for the survey of Washington state registered voters on behalf of the Republican Governor’s Association.

Telephone interviews were completed with 405 registered voters on Dec 16-18, 2004. The overall margin of sampling error is ±5. That means, in theory, there is a 95 probability that the results of this survey are within ±5 of the results that would have been obtained by interviewing all registered voters in the state.

The raw data have been statistically weighted to reflect the proportion of vote in the General Election.

 The data are presented here in a replica of the questionnaire used in the interviews.
 The figures in bold type are percentages of respondents who gave each answer.
 Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding.


FROM SAMPLE: VOTE HISTORY
0.….1.....2.....3…...4
13…9...19..19...40

CONGRESSIONAL DIST
1....2....3....4....5....6…..7....8…..9
11..11..12..9..12..11..13..12..10

SEX: MALE...50 FEMALE…50


**As you know, the recent election here in Washington state resulted in the closest election in history for Governor. In that election did you vote for…

Republican Dino Rossi…42
Democrat Christine Gregoire…42
Another Candidate…2
Or Did You Not Vote in That Race…2
[WON’T SAY…12]

**As you know, because of the closeness of the election, the state conducted a re-count of all 2-point-8 million ballots. That recount resulted in Mr. Rossi being declared the winner by 42 votes.

The state Democratic Party requested a third count of the ballots –to be done by hand, instead of by machine. This recount is almost completed.

If Rossi gets the most votes this time, he will have won all three counts of the vote and will be declared the winner. In your opinion, will Rossi be the legitimate winner of the election? Or are there too many unresolved issues to say?

ROSSI LEGITIMATE…66
TOO MANY UNRESOLVED ISSUES…28
DK/NA…6

**It is possible that the results of this second recount will also be in dispute. If there are unresolveable disputes resulting from this second recount, how do you think the issue should be resolved:

By the Courts…24
By the Legislature…11
By the Voters in a Special Run-Off Election Between Rossi and Gregoire…50
[DK/NA]…15

**State law says that the result of the hand-count is final – whoever wins this count will be declared the Governor. Therefore, if Gregoire ends up with the most votes in this third count, she will be declared the winner. If King County were to change some of their counting rules part way through this third count and Gregoire ends up winning, will Gregoire be the legitimate winner of the election, in your opinion? Or would Rossi then be justified in asking for a new election to vote again?

GREGOIRE LEGITIMATE…33
ROSSI JUSTIFIED IN ASKING FOR A NEW ELECTION…51
DK/NA…16

**If King County were to change some of their counting rules part way through this third count and the final tally from this third count results in a margin of victory for Gregoire that is more than 100 votes, will Gregoire be the legitimate winner of the election, in your opinion? Or would Rossi then be justified in asking for a new election to vote again?

GREGOIRE LEGITIMATE…35
ROSSI JUSTIFIED IN ASKING FOR A NEW ELECTION…52
DK/NA…13

**If there is a continuing dispute, it will be over the legitimacy of the ballots and the counting process used in each county. There has never been a contested state-wide election in Washington. In the past, the courts have resolved contested local elections. However, since this would be the first time, the legislature could be called upon to resolve this election.
If it goes to the Legislature, it could work much like an impeachment process, where Senators and Representatives hear testimony from both sides – then vote to determine the winner.
Given this, how do you think the new governor should be determined if there are still unresolved disputes after this second recount:

By the Courts…26
By the Legislature…12
By the Voters in a Special Run-Off Election Between Rossi and Gregoire…52
[DK/NA]…11

**What is your overall opinion of the two candidates today?
Would you say your opinion of [READ & ROTATE] is Very Favorable, Somewhat Favorable, Somewhat Unfavorable, or Very Unfavorable?

[REPEAT QUESTION WITH SECOND NAME]

VF FAV UNFAV VERY DK
1. Christine Gregoire 22 29 23 20 5
2. Dino Rossi 31 33 17 8 12

**I have just a few last questions for our statistical analysis.
First, how old are you?
18-35...9
36-50...26
51-64...28
65+...36
[NO ANSWER].....2

**What is the last year of schooling you completed?
HIGH SCHOOL...22
BUSINESS/VOCATIONAL SCHOOL...5
SOME COLLEGE...27
COLLEGE DEGREE...32
GRADUATE/PROFESSIONAL SCHOOL...11
NA...3

**Which of these the following best describes you at this time? Are you. . .

employed in the public sector, like a governmental agency or educational institution...15
employed in private business...36
Not Working Right Now...9
Retired...38
No answer].....2

**If you had to register by party in order to vote, would you register as a Democrat, a Republican, or Independent?
DEMOCRAT...39
REPUBLICAN...31
INDEPENDENT...23
[NO ANSWER].....8

Thank you very much. You have been very helpful.


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